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Topic outline

 

Courtesy of kenyai / Tunde Pecsvari at Flickr

  • Time: 5 hours
    Level: Introductory

 
 

Introduction

  • Introduction Resource
  • This unit provides an introduction to global warming. We will be considering the history of global warming by looking at the pattern of ice ages and analyisis of recorded temperatures. We will aim to gather...
 

1. Natural climate change?

  • 1. Natural climate change? Resource
  • The chart below shows a record of the global mean surface temperature of the Earth compiled for the past 140 years. Clearly there is an upward trend, but what does a chart like this really show?
 

2. A 4.6 billion-year history

  • 2. A 4.6 billion-year history Resource
  • Climate change is a natural process of warming and cooling that has occurred all through the Earth's history. Throughout geological time there have been ‘hot-house’ periods and ice ages. In order to understand...
 

3. Recorded temperatures

  • 3. Recorded temperatures Resource
  • Analyses of over 400 proxy climate series (from trees, corals, ice cores and historical records) show that the 1990s was the warmest decade of the millennium and the 20th century the warmest century....
 

Further reading

 

4. Human influence?

  • 4. Human influence? Resource
  • Evidence suggests that global temperature is beginning to rise. There are several factors that could cause this. Only one is affected by human activity.
 

Further reading

  • Further reading Resource
  • The models being used in research take such simple energy flows and increase the ‘granularity’ of the components used, to build complex time sequences.
 

5. Climate models

  • Climate models Resource
  • To understand climate change it is necessary to construct climate models, to explore and predict interactions between different factors. Models are tested for accuracy against known sets of data, before...
  • Comparing modelled and observed temperature Resource
  • The IPCC comparison between modelled and observed temperatures since the year 1860 is shown in the three charts below
  • Running the models forward Resource
  • What happens when the models are run forward? It depends upon the models used and the scenarios they are asked to run. It seems almost certain, however, that there will be increases in the global mean...
  • Closing thoughts Resource
  • Of course, doing anything about this needs scientific evidence and understanding, but it also requires social, economic and technological changes, which can only be achieved through political will. If...
 

References and Acknowledgements

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